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ASEAN tilts toward China and Gulf states as Trump tariffs bite

Written by Nikkei Asia Published on   4 mins read

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The first trilateral summit included discussions on establishing a regional business council for trade and investment.

Southeast Asia sought to strengthen trade ties with China and the Gulf states in a landmark trilateral summit on May 27 in Kuala Lumpur, aimed at enhancing economic cooperation in response to sweeping US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Leaders from ASEAN, China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plan to form a regional business council to support “enhanced trade and investment flows” and the development of regional value chains, according to a joint statement released Wednesday. The GCC comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The document added that parties will promote “high quality cooperation under [the] Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and seamless connectivity,” including through the development of logistics corridors and digital platforms. The three will also collaborate on training and capacity building in nuclear safety, reactor technology and regulatory frameworks.

China was represented by premier Li Qiang while the GCC states sent crown princes, senior ministers, and other officials.

In his opening remarks at the ASEAN-GCC-China summit, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the meeting’s host, described the ties among the three as “deep and enduring,” rooted in a long shared history.

“From the ancient Silk Road to the vibrant maritime networks of Southeast Asia to modern trade corridors, our peoples have long connected through commerce, culture and the sharing of ideas,” Anwar said. He added that the relationships reflect both “immense existing linkages as well as substantial untapped potential.”

Li echoed Anwar’s remarks, emphasizing the deep historical ties that underpin Beijing’s current BRI. Amid an “increasingly complex international environment and a sluggish global economy,” he said, the summit offers a chance to “jointly create a model of global cooperation and development for this era.”

According to officials, China and several other countries proposed exploring the inclusion of the GCC in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the 15-member trade pact that includes China and ASEAN. In response, ASEAN said it will conduct feasibility studies on the GCC’s potential entry into RCEP in addition to a separate trade agreement between ASEAN and the Gulf states.

During the meeting, China and several countries expressed “disappointment” over the recent US tariffs, highlighting growing concerns over rising protectionism, officials said. However, there was no indication of any plans to retaliate, as ASEAN leaders reaffirmed their commitment to open trade and a non-confrontational approach.

Analysts say US protectionism is reshaping global trade ties, accelerating China’s pivot to Southeast Asia and prompting ASEAN to double down on alternative partners.

Ilango Karuppannan, a former Malaysian diplomat and foreign policy analyst, said the inaugural summit reflects a broader global realignment. While the US still leads in financial flows and institutional clout, its dominance is gradually waning, he said.

“China’s trade footprint continues to expand, and the GCC—armed with sovereign wealth and strategic energy exports—is building lasting economic linkages in Asia,” Ilango told Nikkei Asia. He added that while ASEAN seeks US investment, it must also remain open and agile within global supply chains.

“The real challenge lies in managing this balance without being forced into binary alignments,” he said.

After holding its first summit with the GCC in 2023, ASEAN has welcomed its largest trading partner, China, to join discussions for the first time, in a sign of ASEAN’s growing desire to broaden its trade ties beyond those with the US

The sense of urgency has only grown since Trump’s tariff rollout in April, which targeted regional economies. Cambodia was hit hardest with a 49% import duty, followed by Laos at 48% and Vietnam at 46%. While the bloc benefited from supply chain shifts out of China during Trump’s first term, they became vulnerable as their trade burgeoning surpluses with the US put them in Trump’s tariff crosshairs.

In response, export-reliant ASEAN economies are looking to hedge against the US, leaning on China’s established trade channels and the deep pockets of Gulf nations, which share longstanding ties with Muslim-majority members like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei.

ASEAN’s trade with China and the GCC has been growing steadily. In 2024, the combined volume exceeded USD 900 billion, nearly double the USD 453 billion in ASEAN-US trade, according to ASEANstats data. Since the start of Trump’s first term in 2017, the bloc’s trade with China and the GCC has grown by USD 375 billion, outpacing the USD 220 billion rise in trade with the US

Combined, ASEAN, China, and the GCC represent more than 20% of the world’s GDP and a market with a 2.15 billion-strong population. Tricia Yeoh, associate professor at the University of Nottingham Malaysia, said the GCC’s size and spending potential are turning it into a promising trade partner for ASEAN.

Separately, the ASEAN leaders confirmed that East Timor will be formally admitted as the bloc’s 11th member at their October summit.

This article first appeared on Nikkei Asia. It has been republished here as part of 36Kr’s ongoing partnership with Nikkei.

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