Deadline after deadline, and TikTok still doesn’t know if it will ultimately be forced out of the US. But rather than slow down, the company has doubled down on becoming “too big to ban,” pursuing an assertive path of commercialization to strengthen its influence and prepare for the possibility that history could repeat itself.
According to Sensor Tower, TikTok surpassed a billion monthly active mobile users overseas for the first time this May. The milestone suggests that even amid deep uncertainty, the platform continues to grow.
Yet the same Donald Trump, now in his second presidential term, is complicating matters after once giving TikTok hope through executive orders. His unpredictable tariff decisions are now casting a shadow over TikTok’s e-commerce ambitions.
In media interviews, Trump said that if a sale wasn’t finalized by June 19, he would extend TikTok’s divest-or-ban deadline for a third time. That date has come and gone, and with another extension granted, the platform remains in limbo.
“For large companies expanding overseas, there are generally two strategies: either become too big to fail, or big enough but not sharp-edged,” said Nie Huihua, professor at the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, in an interview with 36Kr. “The former means the company has grown so influential that no one dares take it down. The latter means growing quietly, without drawing attention.”
TikTok clearly chose—and could only choose—the first path.
With a growing user base, TikTok has built significant influence among younger audiences. During the last US presidential election, both Joe Biden—who signed the earlier divest-or-ban bill—and Trump—who continues to push for TikTok’s sale—used the platform to engage young voters.
Meanwhile, TikTok Shop, launched in the second half of 2023, has become a key revenue driver. Despite challenges like fluctuating traffic, tepid adoption of live streaming, and reluctant influencers, many merchants have fared well. In just a year and a half, TikTok Shop’s annual GMV (gross merchandise volume) outpaced what it had achieved in four years in the UK.
According to a LatePost report, TikTok’s e-commerce team has set an ambitious goal for 2025: doubling overall sales. The US market is central to that plan, with a targeted growth rate approaching 200%.
However, Business Insider reported that the TikTok Shop has seen a sluggish start in the US this year. Since late March, daily sales, particularly those led by Chinese sellers, have been declining.
Tariffs are making things worse. Trump’s latest round of tariff increases is creating added strain on TikTok Shop’s US business.
Price hikes were expected. But for Heizi (pseudonym), a live stream operations manager in cross-border e-commerce, the spike was startling. In April, prices for fully managed items on TikTok Shop tripled, surpassing increases seen on Amazon, Temu, and other platforms. It quickly became one of the most expensive e-commerce options in the local market.
Sticker shock pushed many consumers to pause or defect to other platforms. Heizi saw traffic nosedive. Previously, the studio could support three or four live stream hosts for 12 hours a day. During the price spike, only four hours of airtime were feasible. Sales were too low to justify longer shifts or labor costs.
Meanwhile, TikTok’s internal issues began surfacing in Heizi’s experience as well. Bugs increasingly affected fully managed product links. In one instance, a USD 20 item was mistakenly listed as USD 0.01. Ironically, it was their best-performing day since the price hike, as bargain-hunters flooded in.
After a post-Labor Day tariff rollback, prices for fully managed goods eased but remained high and erratic.
The fully managed model, which relies on low prices and speed, is especially vulnerable to tariff shocks.
Yet for smaller merchants without supply chain infrastructure or overseas warehouses, this model is critical. During the 2024 Black Friday event, TikTok Shop’s fully managed US business posted 187% year-on-year GMV growth, outpacing the platform’s overall rate.
Prices have also risen for semi-managed goods, though some sellers are still discounting or clearing unsold stock from overseas warehouses.
For TikTok, racing against time, ongoing tariff volatility in the US remains a significant obstacle.
Will TikTok ultimately be banned in the US, or will it survive?
Nie believes a full ban is unlikely. He expects ByteDance will eventually relinquish control or equity in TikTok’s US operations: “They might give up actual control, like under a trusteeship model, but retain most of the shares. That way, both sides can save face.”
Still, Trump’s unpredictability adds to the uncertainty. “He cares about the art of the deal,” Nie said. “He has no fixed principles. Reversals and maximum pressure might be part of his personality, or part of his negotiation playbook.”
Regardless, there’s no turning back. TikTok has planted deep roots in the US and now has little choice but to press ahead.
That’s why Nie continues to stress one key point to China’s globalizing companies: government relations must be a top priority.
There may be takeaways from the approach of Kuaishou, which recently released its Q1 financials. Among the highlights: progress in monetizing Kling AI, its flagship artificial intelligence product, and its first operating profit from overseas business.
Kuaishou’s decision to expand into Brazil puzzled many in the industry. The country has underdeveloped infrastructure, weak supply chains, and highly localized consumer habits. It’s not an obvious choice for global expansion.
But according to people close to the company, geopolitics played a pivotal role in market selection.
Other companies are charting similar paths. Meituan’s overseas food delivery service Keeta and dessert chain Mixue Bingcheng have entered Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, either bypassing the US or diversifying across multiple regions.
Policy shifts and TikTok’s mounting challenges are starting to erode merchant confidence. In some ways, sellers now seem to be heading in the opposite direction of TikTok’s expansion goals.
Few merchants who spoke with 36Kr said they remain fully committed to TikTok. More are exploring platform or market shifts. Some sellers who once dismissed Amazon as overcrowded and low-margin are now reconsidering a return to the stability it offers.
KrASIA Connection features translated and adapted content that was originally published by 36Kr. This article was written by Lan Jie for 36Kr.